Life Expectancy Studies: Changes Over Time
I am a respiratory therapist. I started this job in 1997. Back then, we were told by our teachers that the median life expectancy of heart failure patients was 2 years. It did not take long for me to realize that this was not necessarily true. There are many people with heart failure who live much, much longer.
Interestingly, many times over my 25-year career I have had conversations with people with heart failure. And often I hear things like, “My doctor said I had 2 years left. Here I am 10 years later.” So, such discussions led me to do some research on this topic. And here is what I learned.
Studies about heart failure patients' life expectancy
Here is what a 1993 study concluded:1
- The median survival of men was 1.7 years
- The median survival of women was 3.2 years.
Researchers reviewing the study concluded that heart failure is “highly lethal.” And they noted that the prognosis gets worse the older a person is, regardless of sex. However, they also noted that death rates for those diagnosed with heart disease had been "decreasing steadily in the United States.”1
And this was just 1 study. I would imagine this, along with other similar studies from that time, was how my teachers came up with the 2-year prognosis for those diagnosed with heart failure.
Without even looking at studies, I can tell you that heart failure wisdom has improved immensely over the past 25 years. And, during this time, I knew many heart failure patients who lived well past this 2-year prognosis. So it became obvious these statistics don’t always hold true.
What do studies show now?
Cohort studies are those that study groups of people over a period of time. And there have been many cohort studies of heart failure patients over the past 30 years. Based on these studies, here is what experts now conclude:2
- The life expectancy of heart failure patients has improved over the past 20 years. This is mainly due to improved wisdom, medicine, and devices to treat heart diseases.
- Some people with heart failure make a full recovery. This may be the case in those who develop spontaneous heart failure due to reversible causes. Good examples include heart failure due to peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM), Takotsubo syndrome, viral myocarditis, and alcohol-induced cardiomyopathy.
- Some people with heart failure make a “substantial” recovery. This is because of medicines and devices to help people manage heart disease.
- The 1-year survival rate for a heart failure diagnosis is 80 to 90 percent.
- The 5-year survival rate for a heart failure diagnosis is 50 to 60 percent.
- Studies show that women have a higher survival rate than men.
So, as you can see, people are living longer than ever before despite a heart failure diagnosis. There is still much room for improvement.
How long will you live?
No doctor knows how long you will live. In fact, no person can possibly know how long any person will live. As I often tell people, "Only God knows how long you will live." So, why then do doctors tell you how long you will live?
It is part of determining your prognosis. According to dictionary.com, a prognosis is a guess as to how the course of your disease will play out over time.
And a part of a prognosis is "guessing" or "estimating" how long you are expected to live. A prognosis is helpful in various ways.3
- It shows that your doctor is being honest with you. This can help give you a sense of realism about your current situation. And it can help guide future treatment decisions.
- It can give you a sense of "realism" about your current situation. A doctor might say, "Look, I'm telling you this because I want you to take your condition very seriously. That said, I think we can come up with a treatment plan that may help you live well beyond this life expectancy estimate. But I can't make any promises."
- It can help you and your doctor determine what treatment options are best for you. Your doctor may lay out various options. "Do you want to be aggressive and have surgery? Do you want to try certain medicines and not do anything too aggressive?" You can then make a sound decision about how you want to be treated.
So, a doctor may estimate how long you are expected to live. This is determined by your age at diagnosis, what caused you to develop heart failure, what treatments and devices are available for treating the cause, and the severity of your heart failure.
You may live well beyond any prognosis!
Of course, it is never easy to have these conversations. A doctor who is blunt may come across as heartless and uncaring. So, it is important for doctors to begin the conversation in a way that is empathetic and caring. Once the information is shared, a doctor must respond appropriately and empathetically. And, as many of us are aware, some doctors are better at this than others.
Still, it is important for doctors to be up front and honest with you. And from there, your job is to see your doctor regularly. As best you can, follow your doctor’s recommendations. And live your life as best you can given your limitations. With all the great health wisdom and treatments now available, you may live well beyond your doctor’s estimates.
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